K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown weak efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 8.67 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.