K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 15, 2022 7:40 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-113/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 9.36 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a massive 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Houston Texans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.10 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.