K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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K.J. Hamler

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
K.J. Hamler has garnered a colossal 22.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wideouts.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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