K.J. Hamler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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K.J. Hamler

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 16, 2022 5:55 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+309/-558).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +312 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +309.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects K.J. Hamler to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (10.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.4% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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