K.J. Hamler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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K.J. Hamler

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-456).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +284 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects K.J. Hamler to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (13.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.9% in games he has played).
K.J. Hamler has garnered a colossal 22.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wideouts.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in football to WRs: 0.59 per game since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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