Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kirk Cousins

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
With a 62.5% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football under these circumstances has been the Falcons.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 131.9 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 6th-fewest passing touchdowns in football: 1.16 per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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