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Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 58.8 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

In registering a colossal 34.6 pass attempts per game this year, Kirk Cousins ranks among the top QBs in football (76th percentile) by this metric.

This year, the poor Raiders defense has conceded a monstrous 1.85 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Falcons being a 6-point favorite in this game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

The model projects the Falcons to be the least pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 50.9% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to call the 10th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

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