Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kirk Cousins

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their downs: the highest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a feeble 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Chiefs defense has given up the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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