Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 37.6 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Kirk Cousins has been among the best TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.00 per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Kirk Cousins's throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 64.8% to 61.6%.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL versus the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (64.9%).