Kirk Cousins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kirk Cousins

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 40.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the league vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (64.5%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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