Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 4-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run on 44.3% of their chances: the 10th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.23 seconds per play.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's collection of DTs has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
In racking up a puny 1.4 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Kirk Cousins places among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL (18th percentile) in regards to running utilization.
Kirk Cousins has generated just 2.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the league among quarterbacks (5th percentile).
Kirk Cousins's rushing efficiency (1.72 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (12th percentile among quarterbacks).
Kirk Cousins rates as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging just 0.48 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 21st percentile.