Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-112/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (7.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Kirk Cousins's running effectiveness (6.90 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (88th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to earn 2.1 rush attempts this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The New Orleans Saints defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 3.91 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.