Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (6.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.2% in games he has played).
Kirk Cousins's running effectiveness (6.61 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (88th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles grade out as the worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.