Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (8.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.3% in games he has played).
Kirk Cousins's running effectiveness (6.61 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (86th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Green Bay Packers defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 4.82 yards-per-carry.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to earn 2.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.