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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects Khalil Shakir to garner 7.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (20.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (7.8%).

Khalil Shakir's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a substantial boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.4 mark.

Khalil Shakir's 98.6% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 86.7% mark.

This year, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 122.6 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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