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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 132.5 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

In this week's contest, Khalil Shakir is expected by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.

Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this season (23.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (8.3%).

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

Khalil Shakir's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 86.7% to 80.6%.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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