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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-138/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

Khalil Shakir's 23.0% Target% this year conveys a significant progression in his pass game utilization over last year's 7.8% rate.

The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Khalil Shakir's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, accumulating 5.5 adjusted catches vs a measly 2.4 last season.

With a remarkable 84.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (100th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places among the best possession receivers in the league among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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