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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Bills as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The predictive model expects Khalil Shakir to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.

Khalil Shakir has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this year (23.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (7.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to run just 61.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 53.8 per game on average).

The Lions pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.2%) to wide receivers this year (61.2%).

The Lions safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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