Khalil Shakir Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Khalil Shakir's 15.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 8.8.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Khalil Shakir's receiving performance has gotten better this year, averaging 2.2 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 1.0 last year.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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