Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
Khalil Shakir has totaled far more air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (14.0 per game).
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Khalil Shakir's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a material growth in his pass-catching skills over last year's 17.0 figure.
Khalil Shakir profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing a remarkable 90.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 98.0) vs. wideouts this year.

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