Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Khalil Shakir

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Shakir

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.0% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Khalil Shakir has been among the most efficient receivers in football, averaging a stellar 10.11 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed weak efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 9.06 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
Khalil Shakir has totaled a measly 14.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 24th percentile among WRs.
Khalil Shakir's 8.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 13th percentile for WRs.

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