Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:46 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Khalil Herbert's ground effectiveness (5.16 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (97th percentile among running backs).
Khalil Herbert has been among the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.59 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season.

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