Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-136/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.
Khalil Herbert grades out as one of the leading running backs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.11 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
While Khalil Herbert has earned 37.6% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Chicago's ground game this week at 19.9%.
Khalil Herbert's 4.3 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a significant decline in his running prowess over last year's 5.4 rate.
This year, the feeble Detroit Lions run defense has been gouged for a massive 3.82 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 29th-biggest rate in the NFL.

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