Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-121/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in run support.
Khalil Herbert has picked up 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (75th percentile).
Khalil Herbert's running efficiency (4.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (87th percentile among RBs).
With a terrific total of 3.57 yards after contact (92nd percentile), Khalil Herbert places as one of the best RBs in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game in this week's game (26.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.2% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 77.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.

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