Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Khalil Herbert has run for substantially more yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (26.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.3% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 100 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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