Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-104/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Khalil Herbert has rushed for significantly more yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Khalil Herbert's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, totaling 6.37 yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.07 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a less important option in his team's running game this week (26.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.6% in games he has played).

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