Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Khalil Herbert has run for many more yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Khalil Herbert's rushing effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 5.78 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.07 figure last year.
Khalil Herbert has been among the leading RBs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.79 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack this week (21.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.4% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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