Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Khalil Herbert has run for a lot more yards per game (79.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Khalil Herbert's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 6.05 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.07 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this week (25.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.6% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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