Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (144 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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