Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.83 yards-per-carry.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.