Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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