Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Khalil Herbert has rushed for many more yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Khalil Herbert's ground efficiency has gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.79 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.07 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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