Khalil Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-589).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -449 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -589.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Khalil Herbert has run for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (83rd percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the NFL (0.29 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

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