Khalil Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-589).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Khalil Herbert has rushed for 0.75 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.75 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (24.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.9% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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