Khalil Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-179).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -168 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -179.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
Khalil Herbert has garnered 50.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

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