Khalil Herbert Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+375/-763).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +375.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.37 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the 31st-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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