Khalil Herbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Khalil Herbert's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 5.5.
Khalil Herbert's receiving talent has been refined this season, totaling 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.7 last season.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (92.3%) to running backs this year (92.3%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Khalil Herbert's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 81.8% rate.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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