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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Khalil Herbert's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 5.5.

Khalil Herbert's receiving talent has been refined this season, totaling 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.7 last season.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (92.3%) to running backs this year (92.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

Khalil Herbert's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 81.8% rate.

The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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