Khalil Herbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 8:05 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to accrue 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (85.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (85.3%).
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.