Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
In this week's contest, Khalil Herbert is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 81st percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
Khalil Herbert has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this year (11.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.3%).
Khalil Herbert's 21.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 4.0 rate.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert has notched a feeble -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 81.8% to 75.2%.

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