Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Khalil Herbert has been among the most efficient receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, averaging a stellar 7.96 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 95th percentile.
Khalil Herbert has been among the top running backs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 10.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The Broncos defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (40.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 14.37 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert has totaled a measly -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 13th percentile among running backs.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 81.8% to 74.0%.

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