Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Khalil Herbert has run a route on 28.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Khalil Herbert has been among the most efficient receivers in football among running backs, averaging an impressive 10.01 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Khalil Herbert has been among the top running backs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 10.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
Khalil Herbert has totaled a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
Khalil Herbert's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 81.8% to 64.7%.

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