Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
When talking about air yards, Khalil Herbert ranks in the towering 96th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
Khalil Herbert's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 5.5.
Khalil Herbert's 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a significant boost in his receiving skills over last season's 4.0 mark.
This year, the poor Lions defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a colossal 9.20 YAC.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Khalil Herbert's 72.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 81.8% figure.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) versus running backs this year (70.3%).