Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-118/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Khalil Herbert's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 87.5% to 100.0%.
Khalil Herbert's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this season, averaging 9.90 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.35 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Khalil Herbert has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, playing on 40.8% of snaps compared to just 28.4% last year.
Khalil Herbert has totaled a puny -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile among RBs.

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