Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to accrue 3.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (85.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (85.3%).
The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, allowing 6.86 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Khalil Herbert has notched a meager -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.

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