Khalil Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in run support.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game in this week's game (26.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.2% in games he has played).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Detroit's DE corps has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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