Khalil Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (24.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.6% in games he has played).

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