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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 27th-worst group of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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