Khalil Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 27th-worst group of safeties in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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