Kenyan Drake Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Kenyan Drake has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
Kenyan Drake's rushing efficiency has been refined this year, notching 4.75 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.99 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (21.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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