Kenyan Drake Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 4, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-939).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -756 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -939.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
Kenyan Drake has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.36 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.3% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least TDs in football (0.55 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.

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