Kenyan Drake Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +153 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (51.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (38.7% in games he has played).
Kenyan Drake has run for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among RBs (82nd percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.20 per game) against the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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